Observation is not enough. If the trend watcher is to take advantage, he needs a framework for explaining how the trend began and its likely path within a social system. The directional theories of fashion change trickle down, trickle up and trickle across to make prediction easier by pointing to the likely starting points for a fashion trend, the expected direction that trend will take and how long the trend will last.Some trend watchers visualize the dynamics of fashion as a pyramid of status level. In some theories, fashion trickles down from a highly visible elite. In others, fashion trickles up from street once it is discovered by the fashion elite and introduced to mainstream audiences in an edited version. If a fashion look is promoted by the media and manufactured rapidly enough, the look can trickle across all levels of the market simultaneously for denim, introduction of an unusual color range, a modification in a silhouette or detail, a different way to wear an accessory or a mood expressed in a distinctive style. The pattern of acceptance (or rejection) can be mapped in time.Fashion responds to whatever is modern i.e., to the spirit of the times or the Zeitgeist. People choose among competing styles, those that "click" or connect with the spirit of the times. This collective selection forms a feedback loop between the fashion industry and the consumer, a feedback loop moderated by aesthetic trends and social-psychological processes.
The Look; Design Concept As fashion insiders and forecasters have a mental map of the marketplace, the locations where innovations are likely to be glimpsed early, the supply chain of the textile/apparel industry and the retail conduct to consumers. Fashion insiders also have another mental map - the map of seasons and shows. When consumers shop for winter coats or summer swimsuits, fashion insiders are seasons ahead in their thinking.
Forecasters use these mental maps to organize their observations of directional information. Since innovations rarely apply to the entire marketplace, information must be tagged for the appropriate price point, category and classification. In this way, forecasters turn random bits of data into useful information for decision support, points and style directions.